Date: Thu, 7 Nov 2002 19:56:20 -0500
Subject: Commenting on:  LP ADVISORY: Election results
To: (LP business - campaigns)

>For release: November 6, 2002
>For additional information:
>George Getz, Communications Director
>Phone: (202) 333-0008 Ext. 222
>Libertarians victorious in 21 local races,

1,600 LP candidates, 21 winners. 1,579 defeated.

>WASHINGTON, DC -- Libertarians emerged from Election 2002 buoyed by a flurry
of local wins and record-setting candidate performances, but disappointed by the defeat of three high-profile statewide initiatives. >On the positive side, ... Massachusetts LP candidate Michael Cloud set a new
vote-percentage record for a U.S. Senate race.

Cloud got 19% in a 2-way race. In 1990, LaRouche Democrat Nancy Spannaus, on the ballot as an independent, got 18% against 2-term incumbent Republican John Warner in Virginia in a 2-way race. The threshold, that is, the minimum percentage for an opposition candidate to a popular, entrenched incumbent seems to be in the range of 18-20%, regardless of party. For an indication of this, see the results in Florida: Candidates breaking the 20% barrier included Barbara Bujak, 20.0% (District 2); Grier Ellis, 20.3% (District 3); Scott Palmer Carter, 21.7% (District 12); Ty Price, 20.9% (District 17); Brooks H. Nelson, 22.0% (District 23); Lida C. Throckmorton, 23.4% (District 24); James T. Coakley, 21.5% (District 33); Christopher Michael Wheeler, 24.3% >(District 34); Timothy Moriarty, 24.0% (District 37); John T. Conway, 23.0%
(District 40); Louis A. Cashmer, 20.6% (District 41); Mark A. Howard, 23.2% (District 56); Jason A. Downs, 22.3% (District 63); Michael A. Krech, 25.1% (District 64); James C. Clifford, 25.8% (District 65); Dirk Clary, 20.1% (District 72); Travis L. Larson, 24.3% (District 79); Ronald B. Cadby, (21.5% District 80); John P. Roszman, 24.4% (District 81); Brian Kuszmar, 20.5% (District 91); Michael J. Guidry, 26.2% (District 113); Thomas William Glaser, 26.3% (District

>115); and Mark S. Eckert, 27.9% (District 119).

>However, in not-so-good news, ... several Libertarian candidates touted as
possible winners fell short.

Interesting: the specific candidates and their races are *not* identified here. Could it be because one of hem, Carla Howell in Massachusetts, got just 1% of the vote?

>* Also in California, six Libertarians were elected to local, non- partisan
office -- but did not appear on the ballot because they were running without opposition: Marshall Schwartz (Eden Township Hospital District, Alameda County); Lance Rosmaier (Southwest Healthcare District, Short Term, Kern County); Jerry A. Mercier (Independence Ranch Community Services District, San Luis Obispo County); William J. >Alley (Shandon Joint Unified Schoo District, San Luis Obispo County); Carle
Hylkema (Guadalupe-Coyote Resource Conservation District, Santa Clara County); and Michael Wharton (Oxnard Harbor District, Ventura County).

Six uncontested victories out of a total of 21. Contested victories: 15, by the other 1,594 candidates.

>* In Indiana, Ed Dilts won an unopposed race for a partisan seat on the Needham
Township Board (Johnson County).

Oh, seven uncontested victories. Fourteen wins by the other 1,593 candidates.

>In other significant races:
>* In Wisconsin, Ed Thompson won 10.4% of the vote (183,352 votes) in an eight-way
race for governor. It was the second-best result for a Libertarian candidate in a gubernatorial race against a Republican and Democrat in LP history.

This was one of the races in which the LP candidate was expected to win, Jesse Ventura-style. You may remember hearing that as recently as July at the LP national convention in Indianapolis as recently as July.

>* In Massachusetts, Carla Howell won 1% of the vote in a five-way race for

This, after a 12% finish in a 4-way race for auditor general two years ago.

>* In California, at least three statewide LP candidates appeared poised to
win at least 2% of the vote, the threshold required to maintain the LP's major party status: Dale Ogden (Insurance Commissioner), Gail Lightfoot (Secretary of State), and Marian Smithson (Treasurer).

>* In Iowa, gubernatorial candidate Clyde Cleveland won 24,512 votes (2.4%),
coming in third of four candidates.

>In Virginia, Libertarian-turned-independent Jacob Hornberger won 7% in his
race for U.S. Senate, losing to both incumbent Republican John Warner (84%) and independent Nancy B. Spannaus (9%), who is affiliated with convicted felon Lyndon LaRouche.

So...based on the info provided in the press release, at 7%, Hornberger finished third of all libertarian statewide races, behind Cloud and Thompson. Hornberger got more than 105,000 votes. You may recall that the LP VA chose not to run or support a candidate for U.S. Senate, in part, because most members were said to be too tired, disappointed or disillusioned after the LP VA's two statewide candidates in 2001 got less than 2% each to conduct another campaign so soon. As a quick search of Google News will reveal, most of the late campaign news reports on Hornberger referred to him as being "affiliated with the Libertarian Party," giving the LP a wealth of publicity in what was a pure, hardcore libertarian campaign. (You an check all of Hornberger's positions at To the best of my knowledge, Tom Cox in Oregon had the 4th best statewide campaign, at 5% of the vote.

>In notable U.S. House races around the USA:
>>* In California, Maad Abu-Ghazaleh (District 12) won 7%.
>>* In Massachusetts, Ilana Freedman (District 5) won 6%.
>>* In Colorado, Biff Baker (District 5) won 6%.

Ilana Freedman was one of those who was thought to have a reasonable chance to win.

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